The Dunning-Kruger Effect & Deer Management

You may have never considered how psychology might be intrinsically linked to deer management, but it is. On this podcast Bronson and Moriah discuss a psychological phenomenon called the Dunning-Kruger Effect, and specifically how this psychological bias affects all of us. From taxes, car repair, and highway driving to fine-scale deer movement, the guys discuss how they consider this bias in deer management and life.

Transcript

Moriah Boggess: 0:01

Welcome to Wildlife Investments, where we discuss research, habitat, hunting, and land management with panel of leading resource managers. Wildlife Investments, resource management by Okay, the name of this podcast I think is going to be Dunning Kruger effect, which is a very looming If you're not aware of what the Dunning Kruger effect then you're probably wondering: is this Bronson's new theory on what makes buck antlers larger on full moons? Or it's nothing so wild as that. It's actually a psychology theory that kind of how we as humans relate to the understanding of any subject. And is something that Bronson and I have just because like nerding out about things and various topics, talked about over time that we sometimes see being relatable in the deer research world or management probably just simply because that's the world that we all of our time in. But we wanted to just kind of talk about this today a broader concept and relate it to how we probably other areas of expertise. I'm not a car mechanic. I can change the oil and the truck or car and do some just enough to get me into trouble. So I'd be on the front end of the Dunning Kruger But anyway, we're gonna discuss that today, and then relate it to deer management a little bit, but today's just gonna be a little bit of a curveball because not talking about anything really, really specific to kind of management principle.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 1:49

Yes. Simultaneously, though, I think it It'll be it'll be it's a very different And it's we may be partaking in the the Dunning Kruger effect regarding us talking about Kruger effect. We probably are. We probably are. But yeah, it's something we see often, but we say with humility, if you're a human being, you're alive and well, and you interact with human beings at some level, at some time, you fallen victim to this. And maybe why don't we go through what it is, then we can talk about some examples. But essentially there's a there's a and there's a lot of great examples online. There's pictures with graphs, charts, and go into great t detail, but it's essentially the the relationship between competence and confidence. And what we generally see, and again, we are bad actors in this as well, is that people with least amount of competence have the greatest of confidence. So they're very new to some type of theory. They think after listening to a single podcast or reading a single article, and maybe it with something they saw in the field or they are an expert on this, and they will defend it. They will, you know, be fighting mad about it. They know this is going on, absolutely certain of it. And someone that truly is an expert is back and looking at them and going, essentially, buddy, you don't know what you're talking about. You don't realize it. You're suffering from this phenomenon, you realize it, but you don't have enough experience or enough competence in this subject to what you're saying is wrong.

Moriah Boggess: 4:02

And oftentimes that expert would probably follow that up with saying, I can't even be as confident about this conclusion as said novice thinks they are.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 4:14

That's right. And and we uh joke, Moriah, about maybe this is one of the reasons for the evolution, and a lot of people say it, not just us, but maybe this the kind of the impetus for why we always say it depends. And that frustrates the heck out of people we say it. Yeah. Well, I guess it's conditional. It's conditional. Maybe we need to start saying instead of it maybe we need to say context. Context. So here is a scenario where what you're saying would be valid, but here are three other where what you're saying would not be valid. So here's the context around it.

Moriah Boggess: 4:54

And oftentimes the it depends response usually is on front end of a longer explanation. So it's really kind of an irrelevant phrase. I guess that's what annoys me specifically about it is it is not so much the it depends, it's more so that conditional, and here's how it's conditional. I think that's how we all answer it. So that's why I just anyway, that's an aside.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 5:18

Yeah. Well, you're you're being real persnickety about that, Moriah. You you've just revealed to me that I annoy you every time I say it depends.

Moriah Boggess: 5:27

So I'm over here bristling, bristling up a little.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 5:30

I'll try to get better.

Moriah Boggess: 5:32

I I'm gonna just, if you're good with it, I'm gonna go ahead and describe the continuum because I love the on it. That's probably my favorite part about all this. I don't have any tattoos, but I have joked that if I one, that I would probably get the Dunning-Kruger Like on my forehead or something. And I put a little arrow, be like, I'm here.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 5:52

That would be a good conversation starter for

Moriah Boggess: 5:56

So, okay, I'm on the Wikipedia page real quick, just so that I can announce that. So this was first described by David Dunning and Kruger in 1999. So all credit to those folks. So imagine a graph in front of you, and as Bronson on the yeah, the y-axis would be confidence from on end at the bottom, it's low confidence, high end at the top. Along the bottom from left to right is competence. All the way to the left is low competence, all the way to the right is highest competence. Like you're number one in your field. Um, you know, so imagine like all right, you're an When you first start, you're all the way on the as you learn over the years, you move to the right, somewhere there's somebody who's farthest on the Okay, so that's the two scales, the two axes. Now the the line starts at the very far bottom left. That's low confidence, low competence. This is me on brain surgery. I know nothing about it. I just know that they go in there with knives and and probably a lot of other things. I'm I'm demonstrating my my ignorance here. So you start at the bottom left, and the crazy thing the Dunning Krueger effect is that the slope of the line immediately starts almost straight up. It shoots up, meaning that your confidence in a as you begin learning about it shoots up very and you hit this peak, and they named the peak Mount which is the best. Actually, it's the second best label on this. And that line peaks pretty quickly. It it you know on the on the y-axis on the bottom, in first quarter of that axis as you're moving in level increasing. You're a competence of like a two. You're at like the peak here of your confidence. And then that line drops off super sharply. This would be analogous to if you you went to I I guess I'll use the electrician example again. You went to trade school and you take your first exam learning a bunch of concepts around electricity, and and you flunk that exam, right? You get like a C or a D. You hit the bottom. That's called the Valley of Despair. The very best, the very best label on here.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 8:35

And everybody's been there. Everybody's been there. On everything. Yep.

Moriah Boggess: 8:41

I think we probably all went through that, you know, in school early on, biology, chemistry, whatever. Early on in your class, you hit that valley of where you realize, whoo, there's a lot more to this I thought. The forefront, a lot more than I have to learn, and I even feel overwhelmed that I'll ever Okay, so now confidence has dropped very low. On the competence scale from left or right, we've to like a three of competence. So you're you probably know more than than the of people, average folks on that subject. You know less than experts in your field, but you know more than the average person you'd walk up to in So your your your competence has increased a little And your confidence, because you're in the valley of is like a one or a two. You in fact, you are way less confident than anyone on the peak of Mount Stupid, which is the frustrating about it. That's right. Right? Absolutely. Because you would talk to somebody who has not taken class yet, has not even begun to learn, and they're dude, I can wire your house up. I got it figured out. Anyone can do that. Yeah. Yeah. Positive on positive, negative on negative. Red is right. That's all there is to it. Yeah. And then, all right, so once you hit the valley of the only gratifying thing about the valley of despair is that it's the lowest point from here on. Because then as you increase your competence, you learn more and more. You move from being a novice in your field to being of an expert, you move up the slope of enlightenment. And the slope of enlightenment is a lot more gradual the slope that goes straight up to the Mount, the peak of Mount Stupid early on. And that's what I enjoy most about this graph is that depicts that as we learn more about any subject, we do gain confidence. And I know like I feel this way about plants. The more plants I can identify, the more I'm I become little bit more confident in the plants I can but I don't increase in very much confidence or I guess arrogance about it because I realize just how many more there are. I don't know. Right. For for everyone I learn, it's like, oh, there's two you know, that I'll run across. I'm like, oh, I've never seen that before. And that's and to me, I think that's why the slope of is so gradual.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 11:24

Yeah. And I I would even add another dimension to Moriah. Once you have bottomed out on the valley of and you're on the ascent with your competence confidence, I would say running parallel with is is humility. It is the recognition from what you just Now you have this realization, this is a lot more complicated. And I I don't know it all. I'm trying to get better, and I certainly have increased my competence, but I'm never gonna I'm never gonna know it all, but I'm gonna keep to be more educated on this topic and to get But you have the existing humility to recognize, recognize that. And it and it affects your attitude. And I even think you become more professional more effective with people when you those qualities.

Moriah Boggess: 12:16

The interesting thing about that is that the more you don't know, the less assertive you become about gaps and not stepping too far forward of like, this to be true because I think it is, and that sort thing. You might know a few data points that are like, oh, I'm very certain of this, whatever the topic is. I'm very certain of these data points. But unlike when I was on Mount Stupid, I'm a lot less to fill in the gaps and then stamp my name of approval on it as, oh, this is correct, because I just realize often I'm wrong.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 12:58

Yeah. That's right. And you you see the evolution of this too with with behavior and life experience on that are the the most mundane. And I I think a real good example is I'll pick on guys here, driving. You're 16 years old, you just got your license, you understand the fundament the of the brake and gas and steering and a little bit of physics, maybe. And uh then you also watched a couple NASCAR and you you think you've got this whipped. You know, you can drive 100 plus miles an hour and you can whip in and out in traffic and got it. And then hopefully what happens is that you gaining more confidence, and maybe you don't go into the valley of despair from a devastating That's the worst case scenario. Hopefully, you start realizing of maybe some misses of that that could have gone really You know, man, that that was a close call. And then it's like the older you get, of you may speed, of course, you may drive a a little faster. It doesn't mean like, you know, you're some man and you never get above 55 miles an hour, now you have a healthy respect for how things can go very, very badly. Yeah, I think that's just one of an infinite of examples you could come up with. But I know I'm of the age I am downright, I'll get angry when we're in tight traffic and you start seeing it from behind. You you see that car or that truck. Here they come. They're bouncing back and forth, coming up, they they go past, and I want to yell at them. I'm like, are you crazy? You know, you're you're going 90 miles an whipping in and out of traffic. You're putting yourself at risk, you're all of us at risk if you have a wreck. But being psychology, Mr. Psychologist here, I'm thinking they are so confident in their skill set, they cannot fathom anything would go wrong, you know. So it's that little amount of competence and a great amount of confidence.

Moriah Boggess: 15:15

So if that if if you're that person and you're in East Mississippi, Bronson was the one flipping you

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 15:22

That's right.

Moriah Boggess: 15:22

I was the one that hogged the horn. Yeah. And then, all right. So the one last one I forgot to mention is that you move up the slope of enlightenment, and as you the the peak of your career, you might be one of the top in your field, maybe the top. You are on the plateau of sustainability. And the interesting thing is that that point is at the very far right scale for competence, and it just barely scrapes to where your confidence is the same as when on Mount Stupid. That's right.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 16:02

Yep. And that that's the way I feel, you know, as as you too, I'm sure, as much as we have we have recognized what what we don't know, I'm not near as confident. When I was on a competent scale of one, I just you know, I just took wildlife biology 101. I'm on the third day of class. Oh man, I've I understand how density dependence works. I've got this licked, I got it figured out. And it's like, oh my gosh, I was woefully of how it really works. And yeah, you you you approach that confidence later in life, but you never you never it.

Moriah Boggess: 16:46

Yeah. Before we recorded, we came up with a couple just for topics. We're gonna ask each other here essentially in quiz where we're at on the Dunning Kruger effect, which is probably bi bias, by the way. It very likely is. Unless we're just so self-aware. And we'll answer these and then and then we can move to to a little bit more relevant discussion to like management and deer movement and all. I'll ask these and I and I want to hear your answer and and just why, and it just a short answer as to why you answered the way you did, and and then I'll I'll do the same. First one, Bronson, where are you at on a Dunning Kruger effect when it comes to business taxes and tax law?

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 17:36

Valley of Despair. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, not on Mount Stupid, because if you're on Mount Stupid, you have a lot of So somewhere along the way, I must have gone thinking I knew something about it and realized I don't because I am at the very bottom in of Despair. I realize I don't know anything about it.

Moriah Boggess: 18:01

I'm not sure that I ever climbed Mount Stupid. I'm I'm at the same level as you, but I'm not sure that I that I ever felt like I understood it. But I I'm at that same latitude as Valley of Despair.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 18:14

Yeah, so maybe I'm at confidence low and know because I've never even really attempted to try to learn anything about it. Uh enough self-awareness for me to go be like specialized law. You know, don't know anything about it, need hire an expert to help you with that.

Moriah Boggess: 18:33

So if anyone's interested, we are doing business from now on, too. Um vehicle repair and mechanics.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 18:44

Moriah, it depends. No, not really. I think I am further to the right. I I don't think I'm in the slope of but I I realize I don't I know a few things. I have baseline competence on some very things. But when you really start getting into the engine or a transmission, then nope. I admit that I don't don't know. I'm probably never gonna have the time or take the time to learn. So I will stay I will stay ignorant and I will have low confidence associated with that.

Speaker 1: 19:32

Okay.

Moriah Boggess: 19:33

Yeah, I I will say I'm I'm early on the slope of There's things I know not to tackle, but I just my blinker fluid the other day and it worked out perfect, so we're still running.

Speaker 1: 19:46

You changed your what fluid? The blinker fluid. Blinker? Yeah. Fluid. There's no blinker fluid.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 19:58

What are you talking about? I I changed the blinker. I changed the light bulbs.

Moriah Boggess: 20:03

Yeah, no, actually, if there's if there's blinker fluid, oftentimes that's why you have to change the light because it blew it out to show it.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 20:09

I said, man, I'm vastly don't understand that at all. I almost just sent you back to the Valley of there.

Moriah Boggess: 20:17

Yeah. Just with a little overconfidence. That's right.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 20:20

That's right.

Moriah Boggess: 20:21

All right. Next one I have is exercise science and nutrition.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 20:27

Relative to the prior two subjects, I am further along the continuum of competence. I still have great humility that I am not an but I would say that I am well above average in my competence. And I wouldn't say relative to the human it, but you know, there's a lot of analogous If you kind of understand biology, physiol, of a deer, you know, humans and deer are both so a lot of those things translate and are but also different. You know, we're not a ruminant, for example. So the way we get resources and extract them are very different, but still the the of our needs for energy and protein and things like that are similar. So I I guess I I would put myself on the scale from one to ten, let's say ten as a guru. I'm I'm gonna go six or seven. Ooh, that's strong.

Moriah Boggess: 21:37

Okay. I'm realizing that this question is as well as the last one with vehicle repair. Anytime you get in a bind, you can just go to YouTube and I'll be like, you know, whatever year, whatever I need to do this, and then man, I'm an expert. That's right. Just like that. Yeah. I would say I'm early in the slope of enlightenment yeah, exercise and nutrition. I do I follow the keep it simple, stupid method. And I think it works pretty well there. Yeah. All right. is a little bit this one is closer to home. Okay. Where are you on the Dunning Kruger effect when it comes to fine scale buck movement and resource selection?

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 22:20

I'm going to go back with I would say no greater than a seven. I I have so much respect for number one, So they're not not all the same. I also have respect for temporal relationships and needs. And I'm not talking about seasonal from the rut, non-rut, or bucks in the summer in a bachelor versus the winter. I'm literally talking about daily, how change based on feedback systems nutritionally, a particular need, a nutrient that buck or deer may be seeking. Also thinking about the deer's having a history of dangerous aspects of the So the route that it took to get a particular a week ago, they may be taking a different route to get that resource today because they bumped into a hunter or a bobcat or a coyote or a or whatever three days ago. So confident confident, but certainly not guru. And I think I can confidently say I don't know if there are many gurus. If you think you really can explain all deer

Moriah Boggess: 24:40

How does that make you feel after a long career?

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 24:45

Man, I just think so many of these things, you know, we started out uh at the beginning of episode. Humility is really, really important here. It's you know, that what when when I've at this too, I've heard one of the descriptions of Dunning Krueger is the more you know, the recognition you have about what you don't know. The more you start realizing, man, this is a lot more complicated than I thought. And so part of the competence part too, is me to answer your question competently, is also do I think I am in the realm of possibility of competence, and where do I rank right now to other human beings on the competence of subject? I think those are those could be different

Moriah Boggess: 25:43

So it might not, based on that assessment relative to actually happening. What you're saying is it might not be possible to get a nine and a half or ten competence and able to predict deer movement.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 25:58

Yeah. So I may give myself of, you know, if there an explanation out there, you know, you a model to predict every step for every deer every day. I would say I'm below a five, maybe a three or four. Relative to hunters and the realm of, you know, deer biologist types that have looked at I would put myself in the group that's, you pretty good.

Moriah Boggess: 26:28

Yeah, and I think you're being a little humble there. I would I would put you up there as well, maybe a little higher. And so I think maybe your your slope of enlightenment or even your valley of despair clouding your judgment a bit there and pulling you down further than where probably at. But in other words, you're rating yourself lower than probably should.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 26:52

Maybe or maybe not. I also recognize that the the teamwork that in, and I'm not talking about the field work of the team, I'm talking about the analytical And very much with these things, I'm always with someone, a Natasha type, someone lot more mathematically apt than I am, and a ecology type who's also looking at these are the types of models, the behavior that we're this is the kind of model that we need to apply, and then we're going to extract the from it. You know, I'm more of the deer biologist providing an explanation for here's what I would hypothesize is the reason for why they're this behavior. So even within that, I mean, it's it takes a of people and a lot of different expertise.

Moriah Boggess: 27:46

Yeah. So just full disclosure for anyone listening, I myself squarely in the valley of despair here. Right. I've read the research, I've looked at the maps, know, I've I've seen all that kind of stuff and to the point where to me, when I'm hunting, I feel like there are way too many conditions that, you know, too many to be able to predict something like that. I'm way more focused on sign, I'm way more focused on, you know, what's been happening more recently than looking at the landscape and saying, oh, a buck's do this because the pressure is this and it's you know a full moon and all this sort of stuff. So I would I would put myself squarely in the valley of despair because I just I look at it as probably too honestly. I look at it too much as a scientist. And it's kind of interesting. So we've been talking about this from a standpoint true and what's not, and I think that's how you answered that question. We they're wild animals, they're individuals, these decisions. There's at the end of the day, they're still so that we could never truly predict what they would And I think that's what's figuring into the back of head and in answering that question. But that in and in and of itself, you answering that I think reveals one of the ways that someone who is to the right on the competence scale analyzes that compared to someone on Mount Stupid. If I'm a a new, and I don't mean that in a demeaning like we've all been there or are there or and I'm there on other subjects. It's nothing to be ashamed of, right? But we move through this period where we have a little success. And it's like, dude, well, that worked. You know, I can do that again. And and that's like that's the the Mount Stupid part of it. And then I hit this valley of despair where now when I hunt, I'm less confident in just looking at a map hey, deer's gonna do this because of this, and then hunt there, because I understand analytically what has into all of those models and the sea of data points have found that those criteria don't lead to a conclusion that we would be able to predict that kind movement. However, and I want to point this out, there are people listening that probably believe things that I would say lean more towards Mount Stupid that hey, we that, that will outhunt me and you because they it. And this is something I've I've heard, you know, of the podcasts you've done with some of the bigger around the subject. There will be someone in the room that'll say, you know, how do you reconcile the people who go out and believe these things, whether they're true or not, and and are really great hunters? And dude, it's true. There are people, and you see it on hunting media and and they believe some of the craziest stuff, right? The moon charts and all this sort of stuff, but they're really good hunters. And so there's there's one side of the equation, is what is true, and then there's the other side of the equation, which is results. And at the end of the day, if it if if you believe it you believe it hard enough, and that is what causes you to go and sit downwind of a random little bench believe the buck is gonna bed, and then a buck actually does it, doesn't matter what the probability was on our models, if a buck actually does it, they're gonna kill the big one and the you and I won't. And I just speaking for myself, I look at hunting too from that standpoint, and I know it. I think about all the other things that are affecting movement. And instead of being hyper focused on looking for one, you know, one set of criteria and only hunting there, someone who has one of these theories about, you know, buckbetting or whatever the subject is, they'll do And it might only happen that you know, 5% of the time it works out. But the thing is, they're so far committed that 5% of time that they're gonna they're gonna shoot a big And I also think that because of the way those types people hunt that believe a really niche theory like they probably can or they're probably more likely to kill an almost unkillable deer. And I'm saying unkillable, probably in that case, a buck that just has a weird pattern that the average if we did a research project on that, on that herd, he wouldn't show up in the mean. He would be an outlier.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 32:28

He would be the outlier.

Moriah Boggess: 32:29

It only takes one outlier to make it all worth it, And I think that's what's going on there. Yeah.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 32:34

Yeah, I would say there would be in that in case a difference in uh cause and effect is the expert might be attributing the cause to moon phenomenon or something like that. But another phenomenon may be actually going on in kind of placebo type effect, and the the condition may be giving that hunter a great of confidence. And so they get there early, earlier, they sit longer, they're hyper-focused because they at any moment it's about to happen. Also, the the skill relative to the type of that's consistently harvesting above above deer is also giving the moon condition too much credit when it was about scouting that location and being on the right trail, picking the right tree, picking the right distance from the the orientation of the stand to be able the buck up and to be able to get your bow drawn or rifle raised or whatever. All of that stuff, to me, especially relative to the moon, is abundantly more important than any type of, you know, moon phase effect.

Moriah Boggess: 34:03

Yeah. However, now that is a confounding variable, all of those details, because I do believe that the hunters that are out there, and whether there's any amount of meat of those theories, the people who are paying attention to them are more analytical, I think, on average, and are paying attention to the small details, to your point, which make the difference between Dead Buck or not. And so whether or not it was the moon or whether or it was just a happy coincidence, that kind of hunter they commit and they're they might not see anything five days, but when they see one, it's an outlier and he walks in and they've got every you know everything down to a T figured out. And I think that happens more than probably we types would like to admit, because I see it happen me all every year. And I think that's the other, that's the flip side of is that being on the peak of Mount Stupid can work out for you sometimes. I think it works for a lot of people in a lot of Because confidence, confidence can really go a long way. on that by any means.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 35:12

Well, you know, if we took 10,000 people and them all a thousand bucks and said, go to the and place a bet on the roulette table, and you know, there could be one person, they're gonna put all of their money on one spin, they're go black 27, if that's even a viable combination or not on roulette, but and and come out a And and so, you know, every once in a while the stars align for an individual. I think what is therapeutic here is recognizing, my goodness, boy, I got lucky. It could have been a different color, a number, and you know, it did not work out for other 999 people, but don't look at that where you won and start going, oh, well, let's see. I had this for breakfast this morning. I was wearing my lucky socks, you know, Had my my good ball cap on, my lucky ball cap. It was on Tuesday, probably wouldn't happen if I'd done this on Wednesday. You know, get away from the superstitious and just say, Oh, that's probability. The laws of probability. I got lucky. So that there's some of that too, with one or maybe even three instances of connecting a good deer. Sometimes that's just luck.

Moriah Boggess: 36:40

Yeah. And I think, you know, this kind of uh is is as we this more to management. That is why, in general, for anyone who sees any of stuff we put out content-wise or even the podcast, we not speak very definitively, and it's not from a understanding or familiarity with the topic, like to point of you know, buck movement again. And and Bronson, you did so much of that research and and worked on so many of those research projects over the It's not from a lack of you know, competence, it's from a lack of probably more competence than the that are talking super definitively. The more I understand, this is just a for more I understand and pay attention while being out on different properties looking at deer food use, diet one plant over another, the more I see that, I by the day I find more and more and more exceptions. And when we look at like research projects or data as a whole, we can often find means. And that's really what research looks at is you know, does the average do? Which is all well and good. But if your property is one of the outliers, or you're in a situation where suddenly you've shifted into an then the mean is irrelevant to you. Having an open mind and being able to shift to what's happening is is more important. And so, like when I think and talk about deer diet I am not nearly as absolute in my language as I see in the habitat management consulting industry. And I think sometimes that kind of absolute And that's, you know, that's one thing where we're just for anyone listening, we're not comfortable, throwing out our morals or what we believe to try to more sales and overstate claims of what we truly in general, no matter how much data we have. There's certain things that we know, there's on the knowledge and absoluteness of it. Uh you know, a great example is fine-tuning, you know, fine-scale deer movement. There's a lot of people out there that make a lot of designing plans to make a buck step one in one certain spot or another. And there's some validity to that for sure. You can absolutely affect deer movement. But where I know I become uncomfortable around some of the marketing there is the claims, how absolute those are.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 39:26

Yeah. So confidence does sell, and it's it's to people when you're very, very confident. What's kind of difficult with that is someone me or you, when we might be watching, hearing, reading someone that is so very confident something we're very competent about, is uh, know, are they being intentionally You know, are they just selling you that, you through their their confidence, or or do not know any better? You know, are they really way to the left on continuum of competence? And because of that, they are very, very So that's what, you know, difficult for me to figure out sometimes. Like, man, they are really, you know, so it like that. They are really confident. So now I've got two decisions. Maybe they are, maybe they are really competent as well. Or maybe they're on the peak of Mount Stupid.

Moriah Boggess: 40:35

Man, and disingenuous salesmanship is so Great example. Just look at the diet world. If you you'll see ads or whatever sometimes like pop on the TV or something, and you know, there's media, it's like, oh, all you got to do is download my drinking, you'll drink lemon water and you know, do jumping jacks and then stand on your head for five and this is proven to work every single time you see kind of stuff. And and I am by no means a nutritionist or an exercise scientist, but I know it enough just from seeing the trends across science that whenever something is a shortcut like that, like, oh yeah, done and work every time. This is the diet pill, this is the the magic bean, it is. Oh, just plant this and you'll have big bucks, man, run the other way. And it's not that that whatever that is couldn't be It's it's really comes down to okay, yeah, but if it that easy, just you know.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 41:39

All right, here's another red flag is you've something. You know, I discovered something in my research developed by a Russian scientist in the 1800s. And hey, let me give you a tip. The fitness and diet industry are trying to this knowledge because they know it will But I'm the one that uncovered that, and for a small price, I will share that with you. Gamesmanship.

Moriah Boggess: 42:10

Yeah. You know, and what it always comes down to is that the real answer is is for whatever reason, I don't I'm sure there's some kind of if we were gonna start psychology series here on the Wildlife Investments I'd wanna, I would wanna research this more, but there's something in the human psyche that we're always looking for a shortcut, right? It's evolutionarily advantage advantageous for us to out a shortcut. I mean, that's how humans have always progressed. Like we figured out, yeah, it'd be nice if I could, you know, do work at night and we invent the light bulb you know, be able to get places and we invent the gas So it's it's definitely a good trait, but I think hijacked in those instances where we're looking for instant gratification and shortcuts to get That the real answer is it just takes a lot of hard work and determination. Yeah, getting in you know, good shape, losing weight, like that is a is an excellent example. The recipe is very simple. Cut calories and exercise more, you know, exercise or in a little bit of a calorie deficit, and that is that is really the true answer. But that doesn't sell. And you know, the little infomercials on social media going to tell you that. And I see that same parallel in the deer world when you see some of the, you know, some of these little feed stuff that there's at Walmart and and whatever, it's like, okay, come on. And I have to say, it's just to full transparency. When I was a kid and I first got into hunting, I I you know, I didn't come from a hunting background. I was immediately like, you know, hook line synchron those things. When I was in high school, I was like, oh yeah, this is gonna be it. And then, you know, obviously figured out pretty It's like, no. No, it's it's actually pretty simple. You know, age, nutrition, genetics, and you have to able to move all those in the right direction. And it takes time and money and effort. Time. Mm-hmm.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 44:09

And, you know, for you to consistently kill a lot of deer or good deer or whatever, it means you got to spend a lot of time in the You know, you're just not going to be able to up one particular day, one particular and expect everything to work out. It's it's the repetition and doing it over and over. And kind of a pretty cool correlation. The more time you put into it, the better you'll get out of it.

Moriah Boggess: 44:35

Yeah.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 44:36

But that's what we're always trying to fast right? The time. We're trying to get a disproportionate positive response without the amount of work putting it. Well, I've got one a topic for you, Moriah. I want to see where you're at on your scale from know nothing to guru, and are you to the left of the valley or to the right? Are you on the slope of in enlightenment with wasting disease? Man, that's a loaded question. And I ask you this, Moriah, genuinely, because I I don't know if anybody in the hunting has any opinion on CWD. They don't. Nobody has any opinion on CWD.

Moriah Boggess: 45:25

Okay. I'm gonna pull a Bronson on this one. Uh-oh. I think I'm early on the slope of enlightenment when it comes to the knowledge that's out there, I'm not as well read as I used to be when I was in the agency world because that was my job and going to and whatever related to CWD. So I've probably fallen behind a little bit there. I'm I've probably actually backslid on the slope, if we're telling the truth. But I think that in general, you know, I might upset researchers here, but I think in general as a community, we're still pretty close to the valley of when it comes to the implications of CWD. There's so much about it when if we want to talk population effects, health effects, and how those will play out long term. Will deer, you know, evolve to be able to live longer it or live with it, or, you know, even even be fully to it? Could that ever happen? There's so much there that we there's so many questions that we're still trying to answer. But the the long and short of it is with CWD, the long and short of my answer is that I think that we all probably close to the Valley of Despair and hopefully out. There are a lot of folks on closer to the peak of Mount Stupid that probably feel like we know more about the And conclusion aside, conclusions about what we do or what we shouldn't do aside, I think there's of opinion out there that comes across as much more about what is or isn't happening, or what could or happen, than what the science shows. And that's probably the most frustrating part about someone who's hopefully a little bit past the despair and climbing out, is that the vast majority of the information getting pushed around and opinion you know, voiced is coming from a place of much more than than we really can have about it. That's right.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 47:50

Yeah. Yeah, I I don't want to dig in too deeply but I feel very similar and and just relative this topic, that the sitting to get into what we know and don't know and and the implications thereof, I just thought that is something that I routinely will see on social media people's And I can just go, Dunning Kruger, Dunning Dunning Kruger, you know, the the certainty which they are saying something is or is not that person cannot possibly know that. I know enough to know they can't possibly that. And the wheels are are turning slowly with disease, the complexity. It's also really kind of even about that The more you know about it, the more you realize how complex this is. And it's not going to be something easy to solve. And it's one of those situations where it may not be year-to-year incremental progress in about it, it might be more decade to decade due to the complexity of it. So, yeah, it's a tough nut to crack. And to me, just a wonderful, tangible example deer biology and management of how get on social media, you can see the effect pretty clearly.

Moriah Boggess: 49:21

This is not related to CWD at all. But uh, and this was not a subject related to wildlife management. Sometimes I'll read comments. I don't comment on Facebook because it's poor practice in my opinion, not changing anyone's mind, but I I will get entertained by reading them. And there's this really out of pocket comment, and best response to it was someone commented very benignly. They're like, Oh, I can see you're early on the Dunning Kruger curve. And so anyone who like, you know, hopefully everyone now will be like, oh yeah, now I get it. But that that was like a little nugget for me. I'm like, I see what you did there. They didn't know they were insulted, but it was it kind of funny.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 50:03

Exactly. And I have no idea if I saw the exact same I don't even remember what the post was about. It may be that the exact same person may be making that reply to people, but I I have seen that as well, and I chuckled. I thought that was nicely done. Yeah.

Moriah Boggess: 50:23

Yeah, and I and I think again, because I don't want to sit here like we're on some high horse. There are so many subjects I know very little about. And I know everyone who's listening to this, heck, they might be, you know, their expertise is in wildlife or something very different. Man, I am not, I am absolutely not going to go tell a that I know anything about true operations and the and and maintenance and everything that goes into a operation, or you name it. And that that's just the beauty of, you know, our the economy, whatever. We've got a lot of really specialized people. Everyone has sort of their own expertise. And there's, I think there's a little bit of maturity in realizing that, hey, just because I have an opinion does not mean that I can, that I I know better than the expert that's worked in this field for so long. And obviously, I say this, you know, you can tell that this is close to home for us when it comes to deer But man, I that is something I have tried to apply, being self-aware in life as I've grown older, to apply to every professional that I come across. Okay. They went to school, they know what they're talking And I I do think that there, that's kind of a uh, I know, that's that's a realization that I think probably a lot of professionals get to honing a craft understanding something inside and out.

Dr. Bronson Strickland: 51:52

Yeah. And maybe we can just kind of circle back and end where we began with if you're a human being, are predisposed to to falling prey to And e probably uh, you know, with with the amount of humility, Moriah, even being aware this phenomenon, you can likely still to it. Because so much of it is having some but I mean it it it's literally you don't know what you don't know either. And it literally takes time and effort to accumulating more knowledge before you reach that threshold of realizing, oh my goodness, the of this. I had no idea. But you have to put in some effort to get there. So it is good, you know. Didn't want this, you know, for us to sound like a sociological or psychological public announcement here, but but it is something that we see a lot. It may serve some listeners well with what you and I have planned for a few episodes upcoming. I don't know if it'll be the next or or after, but we're going to be talking about uh some work. Me along with others, I was part of their looking at the effect of calling. And talked about it before, but this big study was finally published, and I wanted to wait it was published and had been through peer to go through the results. But I'm gonna go ahead and tell you there's be some people that aren't gonna like the and they're gonna be an expert, even though not, and try to poke holes in it and not it, and so forth. So it's like it's kind of a good opportunity for this episode. We hope they would listen to it, so maybe then they would open their mind to man, I I really have as much experience with that as the people that are talking about it do. Maybe I should open my mind up and listen a

Moriah Boggess: 54:08

I think whenever we start a podcast from now on, we to pull everyone who's participating on the subject where they think they're at on the Dunning Kruger And if someone can't answer that, they probably shouldn't be on the podcast. Yeah. All right. Thanks for the talk. I enjoyed it. I always love talking about this kind of stuff. Yeah, it's fun. Enjoyed it. Thanks for listening to the Wildlife Investments podcast. For more information on these topics or to see some of the projects our team is working on, follow us on and Facebook at Wildlife Investments or visit